Wall Street Exposed Review

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Each year, Wall Street Exposed issued thousands of pages in the form of a detailed analysis and a good number of charts, with subtle plans for trading, to take advantage of the market over the next 12 months, but eventually most of them proved to be wrong.

During the next few days will be issued the remaining investment banks objectives for the end of the year, special index S & P 500 and other key indicators.

Given the record of the Harmonized strategists on Wall Street as one group, it is difficult to see a reason for concern. Since the turn of the century, the average forecast for next year was more than 10 per cent, according to Bloomberg data. This is roughly analogous to the rise of the market or the average landing during the same period.

In spite of this, investors do some kind of projections to decide the scope of the investment. Is the price of bonds is exaggerated? Most of Wall Street think so; Goldman Sachs, for example, expects loss of up 1.1 per cent next year on U.S. Treasuries for five years, while expected Credit Suisse to jump dividend of ten years from the current level, 1.6 per cent to level up up to 2.25 per cent. This despite the fact that Credit Suisse is expected to be net government bond new'' safe'' available after the central bank buying at the lowest level since 2000.

Is the stock will rise? Again suggesting a quick survey conducted as strategists; lay out the S & P 500 at the level of 1580 points by the end of next year, with a yield of about 13 per cent, and this is close to the value of Goldman, which amounts to 1575 points.

And for investors who are trying to set expectations of their own to begin the consideration of history, where the average yield on the S & P 500 and other indicators since 1928 no more than little to 7 per cent, and this is the foundation of choice for many, as can be inferred from Bloomberg.

One can then evaluate the pros and cons. On the positive side of shares, governors of central banks showed an unprecedented willingness to help support the economy (and corporate profits), while China looks and the U.S. housing market in the case of deflation.

On the negative side, European and American policies dysfunctional, which is easily receive the United States in the depths of the recession, and exacerbate the recession in Europe.

Highlights David, Goldman, profit margins as one of the biggest risks in the forecast. Such a reduction of 50 basis points in the margins of the United States, that reduces the 5 per cent of the profits. This is the same effect, the models, in terms of economic growth in the next lowest percentage points. However indicators on the close the S & P 500 at record levels, it is expected that they will remain neutral for the second year. The owners will feel pessimistic concern the nature of the fact that the margins are not sustainable, especially they are reinforced by the very high margins in the technology field. In spite of this there are no current signs of damage to the margins of higher wages or borrowing costs.

Does the performance of the U.S. stock market since 1928 really the best base? The annual average since 1871 is less than 6 per cent, according to data contained in the presentation of Yale University professor Robert Shiller.

Adding inflation and dividends, the average annual real return in the United States since 1900 was slightly higher, reaching 6.2 per cent, according to Elroy Ddemson and Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the College of Business Administration in London.

This seems like a good basis for expectations - until one looks at other countries. The U.S. stock market is among the best performing market over the past century, which attract the growth of America to become a superpower, the only business in the world to exploit the vast natural resources (only South Africa and Australia, supported also of natural resources, were better). The average real return to the world is much weaker, reaching 5.4 per cent. And even this is doubtful.

Will investors look instead at the equity risk premium, the amount outperform stocks to bonds? For the world as a whole, an increment of 3.5 per cent per year, according to says Demson and Marsh and Staunton. When using this rule, and compared with 1.6 percent for U.S. Treasuries for ten years, 1.6 per cent, the outlook is grim. However, it could be worse. For the world, except the United States, was a better bet than bonds on the stock over the past 50 years.

And if you mingled on how to anticipate returns next year with Wall Street Exposed Review, do not worry; because it may not be worth the effort. During such periods be short luck is dominant, and this is shown by sharp differences in yield. It was not real return on global equities, within one year, in the range of between minus 12 and plus 23 per cent only in periods of slightly more than two-thirds over the past 112 years. In statistical terms, investors should trust some thing in which to predict the base for a period of one year.

Worse still, that luck may become more important, according to signal Michael , head of strategy at the investment firm Legg Mason, in his book'' success'' equation. In everything, from investment to football, the general skills of participants on the rise, but luck is important. There is little doubt that the extra effort, and a greater number of hours, and a bit of lunch concerts became part of the investment process, compared to what was the case a decade ago, or a century. Ironically, this may make the predictions that appear less useful.
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