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Away from the optimistic future of the global economy at least expectations in the next phase, a specialist global report in wealth management expected to be in 2011 more difficult than had been generally expected in the United Kingdom, calling on investors to reduce their exposure to assets denominated in euros, preferring convertible bonds and cash denominated Euros into shares, expected to lead the recent rally in stocks and bonds witnessed in emerging markets for possible setbacks. Because of that, preferring investments in North Asia markets, warning that gold is not an investment central to hedge against inflation, as many believe and that it «shows tendencies toward what looks like a bubble». These assessments come within the framework of the announced Phoenix Trading Review global wealth management institution of expectations for 2011.
But do you lose the gold to the title as a safe haven for investment ?, That's what it seems at least, in what Kevin Gardner says: «There are still good reasons for investors to be cautious of gold in the long run, because it is not an investment central to hedge against inflation, as many believe . As prices rise, which recently witnessed, the gold showing trends toward what looks like a bubble. »
In return, Gardner did not believe that he should drop the municipal bonds, in spite of the financial problems and the deterioration of credit quality and other fundamental changes indicate the need for investors to deal with a more cautious manner. »
Adds Kevin Gardner said: «centered focus in 2010 is primarily the risk of loss. However, we can imagine in the quiver of 2011 some positive surprises that could have a potential impact to move the market. These include the surprises strong recovery in the advanced economies, and rises more acceleration in interest rates, and superior performance for both Russia and Japan, and the banks distribute a larger proportion of the profits, in addition to the recovery of the real estate market in the United States ».
Said Michael Dicks, chief economist at «Barclays Wealth»: It is with a number of scenarios about the European Monetary Union and the euro, which range from «success without planning» to «break-up of the European Monetary Union», the appropriate disposition for investors depends on the extent of their exposure for the euro, Those who have a high rate of exposure, they must first do to reduce their exposure to assets denominated in that currency, or perhaps exposure conversion of the bonds and cash to euro-denominated stock. »
Chief economist at «Barclays Wealth» refers to the possibility that fiscal austerity in the UK leads to the «double-dip recession» at a time in 2011 «will be a more difficult than expected in general, it is doubtful that fiscal tightening Phoenix Trading Review leads to obstruction of recovery in the UK United fully », likely to end the British pound in 2011 better than it started.
In addition, Michael Dicks believes that quantitative easing the impact of «last resort action resorted to by governments to pump more liquidity by printing more money» will be modest, considering that the importance of «the second quantitative easing» is that they sign reflects the US Federal Reserve's commitment to do everything is necessary to ensure economic growth, but since it is associated with financial ease, it involves the risks of rising long-term interest rates. The drop in the weights you another round of «quantitative mitigation II» in reducing problems in the United Kingdom, compared to America ». Quantitative easing, a measure of last resort does not resort to governments usually only after exhausting other fiscal and monetary measures. And it is to pump more liquidity into the economy by printing more money, but it involves the procedure, which takes when the interest rate close to zero, a big risk is the possibility of out inflation control or the collapse of the local currency of the countries that resort Government exchange rates mechanism.
Did not carry the expectations of «Barclays Wealth», as usual, more optimism emerging markets, and despite the continued growth in the GDP of superiority on the growth of the advanced economies, the recent rise in stocks and bonds witnessed in emerging markets leave it vulnerable to possible setbacks such as high rates of inflation more than expected and political shocks and reversal of financial flows, which is regarded as most correct Kevin Gardiner, head of global investment strategy at «Barclays Wealth», which is recommended, preferably «investments in North Asian markets, because of its diversity and evaluations undemanding and exposure to economic growth in China» .
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